The Best Way to End a Sabbatical - ENVX
Nice game, Pretty Boy...
I hope this email finds you well…
It’s been a minute since I’ve written a Substack, but what better way to find my way into your inbox than with the most overused email opener?
First and foremost, I apologize for the month-long hiatus, I have been working religiously on the project I mentioned in Flash Point: Price Drives Sentiment. Although it has taken longer than expected to finish, it will be worth the wait.
As a thank you for surviving the Hoags Research drought, I have comped everyone with a 3-month paid subscription. If you have trouble viewing Paid Subscriber posts, please shoot me a note and I’ll get you squared away.
Nice Game, Pretty Boy
“June 14th, 1987. Mets. Phillies. We’re enjoying a beautiful afternoon in the right field stands when a crucial (Keith) Hernandez error opens the door to a 5-run Phillies ninth. Cost the Mets the game!” - Newman
If you’re a Seinfeld fan, I’m almost certain that you will remember the scene from which the quote above was taken. If you’re not a Seinfeld fan, I’ve included the clip below.
Whether you’re a fan or not, the scene is objectively funny. Admittedly, one of my favorite details of the scene is the date of the Mets-Phillies game because it is my birthday, only 8-years prior.
Do I think I had anything to do with the fictional error by Keith Hernandez? Absolutely.
Do I think I was the cause of the Flyers losing the Eastern Conference Finals to the NJ Devils or the Phillies losing to the Astros on my actual birthday - June 14, 1995. Absolutely not.
The Real Magic Loogie - Enovix (ENVX)
Enough chit chat, let’s get to the good stuff. Last Tuesday (6/25), Enovix (ENVX) announced that they signed an agreement to deliver high-performance batteries for mixed reality headsets. The stock traded as high as $17.12 (+42.2%) intraday before closing the day at $16.26 - a gain of +35.1%.
Today, ENVX stock closed at $15.10/Share, having traded down since the June 25th news release, but still higher by +25.4% since before the news broke.
I first wrote about getting long ENVX in my piece, Making the Case for Enovix, back in March of this year. Chart of ENVX stock performance since my original long thesis:
Note: If you are new to Hoags Research, I highly recommend reading that ER report as it will help fill in some gaps.
Since the first long thesis was published, ENVX stock is +94.6% higher relative to SPY (+5.90%) and QQQ (+9.74%). Not only has stock traded higher, but volume is picking up as well. In theory, the increase in average daily volume should allow institutions to enter into positions due to the better liquidity profile of the stock, but that’s not here nor there for now.
The reason I am pointing out ENVX, besides the big news that broke last week, is not to say, “I was right! I told you so!”. In fact, I wish I had the opportunity to explain why a stock idea didn’t work, but that will come - it always does.
The reason I am pointing this out is because I want to make the point that I don’t often write about individual stocks, but when I do, I am meticulous in my research. Again, this is not to pat myself on the back, I am trying to make the point that I hope to always provide readers with quality over quantity. When I’m wrong, I’ll do the same thing, pointing out where I was wrong, if I missed something, etc. I learn infinitely more from ideas where I am wrong compared to those where I was more accurate.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the goal of Hoags Research was always to publish my best ideas, focusing on quality over quantity. Some months I may have 5 ideas, other times I’ll go without a new idea. No matter what I am seeing or not seeing, I will always make myself available to discuss with readers. Many of you have already reached out and we’ve had great back and forth on companies we agree and disagree about, but at the end of the day, the more conversations, the higher the quality of posts for you, the readers.
My goal isn’t to be right all the time, that’s impossible. I also am not going to avoid posting about ideas where I was wrong - that’s a loser’s mentality.
With all of that being said, I do have a few ideas that have full reports on the way. The ideas are both on the long and short side, which should be fun to discuss. I hope to continue engaging now that I’m back from my faux sabbatical.
In the meantime, let’s all take time to enjoy Enovix’s performance and sheer willpower in proving to be the real Magic Loogie.